Fear of Rate Increase Hits Stocks

The stock market besieged by fears that the Monetary Board will increase Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s (CBSL’s) policy rates when they meet after markets close on the coming Tuesday (4 April 2023) to counter high double digit inflation saw the benchmark ASPI fall sharply by 0.47 per cent to 9,228.50 points and the more sensitive S&P SL 20 Index by 0.34 per cent to 2,664.26 points at today’s trading.

A high interest rate regime is inimical to the growth of the stock market as such an environment will attract investments into the fixed income market at the expense of the stock market. Turnover made today was a miserly Rs 912.68 million, the lowest in two days when on Tuesday 28 March the stock market made a Rs 861.78 million turnover.

The stock market also made low daily turnovers of under Rs 1.5 billion for four consecutive market days to today after a lapse of 28 days. The daily turnovers made in the three immediately preceding three market days were Rs 871.03 million on Monday, Rs 861.78 million on Tuesday and Rs 1.46 billion yesterday (Wednesday 29 March), respectively.

Prior to today, the last time the stock market made daily turnovers of under Rs 1.5 billion for four consecutive market days was from 27 February 2023 to 2 March 2023 with values of Rs 1.21 billion, Rs 1.41 billion, Rs 1.27 billion and Rs 1.45 billion, respectively.

Due to these developments coupled with uncertainty, the stock market suffered a net foreign outflow of Rs 90.37 million today, though in the calendar year to date it has enjoyed a net foreign inflow of Rs 3.19 billion. The number of shares which changed hands today was 45.66 million.

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